Postdoc at CEE Jakob Messner-Photo: Colourbox

High dimensional forecasting of renewable energy generation

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind and solar power are essential for an optimal integration of these energy sources in power systems and electricity markets. Commonly, these forecasts are based on current output at the forecast location and/or output from physical models. With the substantial deployment of generation capacities, high amounts of data have become available at numerous generation sites and at a high temporal resolution.

This project aims in improving power generation forecasts by employing the space-time dependencies in these data. Therefore high-dimensional forecasting models are developed that filter out the most relevant information in the data, adapt to changes in the underlying processes and are still computationally feasible in an operational setting.


Publikationer rss feed

2020
 

Evaluation of wind power forecasts—An up-to-date view

Messner, Jakob W. ; Pinson, Pierre ; Browell, Jethro ; Bjerregård, Mathias B. ; Schicker, Irene
in: Wind Energy, vol: 23, issue: 6, pages: 1461-1481

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2020     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2497

 

Online distributed learning in wind power forecasting

Sommer, Benedikt ; Pinson, Pierre ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Obst, David
in: International Journal of Forecasting

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Accepted/In press     |    Year: 2020     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.04.004

 

Statistical post‐processing of turbulence‐resolving weather forecasts for offshore wind power forecasting

Gilbert, Ciaran ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Pinson, Pierre ; Trombe, Pierre‐Julien ; Verzijlbergh, Remco ; Dorp, Pim ; Jonker, Harmen
in: Wind Energy, vol: 23, issue: 4, pages: 884-897

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2020     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2456

2019
 

Online adaptive lasso estimation in vector autoregressive models for high dimensional wind power forecasting

Messner, Jakob W. ; Pinson, Pierre
in: International Journal of Forecasting, vol: 35, issue: 4, pages: 1485-1498

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2019     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.02.001

2018
  PDF

Estimation methods for non-homogeneous regression models: Minimum continuous ranked probability score vs. maximum likelihood

Gebetsberger, Manuel ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 146, issue: 12, pages: 4323-4338

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2018     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0364.1

2017
 

Spatio-temporal precipitation climatology over complex terrain using a censored additive regression model

Stauffer, Reto ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Umlauf, Nikolaus ; Zeileis, Achim
in: International Journal of Climatology, vol: 37, issue: 7, pages: 3264-3275

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4913

 

Spatial ensemble post-processing with standardized anomalies

Dabernig, Markus ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol: 143, issue: 703, pages: 909-916

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2975

 

Ensemble postprocessing of daily precipitation sums over complex terrain using censored high-resolution standardized anomalies

Stauffer, Reto ; Umlauf, Nikolaus ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 145, issue: 3, pages: 955-969

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0260.1

  PDF

Fine-Tuning Nonhomogeneous Regression for Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts: Unanimous Predictions, Heavy Tails, and Link Functions

Gebetsberger, Manuel ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 145, issue: 11, pages: 4693-4708

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0388.1

 

Nonhomogeneous boosting for predictor selection in ensemble postprocessing

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 145, issue: 1, pages: 137-147

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0088.1


https://www.cee.elektro.dtu.dk/Research/Postdocs/High-dimensional-forecasting-of-renewable-energy-generation?fr=1&id=116970&mr=10&peer=0&ptype=la&qt=DtuPublicationQuery
11 AUGUST 2020