Postdoc at CEE Jakob Messner-Photo: Colourbox

High dimensional forecasting of renewable energy generation

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind and solar power are essential for an optimal integration of these energy sources in power systems and electricity markets. Commonly, these forecasts are based on current output at the forecast location and/or output from physical models. With the substantial deployment of generation capacities, high amounts of data have become available at numerous generation sites and at a high temporal resolution.

This project aims in improving power generation forecasts by employing the space-time dependencies in these data. Therefore high-dimensional forecasting models are developed that filter out the most relevant information in the data, adapt to changes in the underlying processes and are still computationally feasible in an operational setting.


Publikationer rss feed

2016
 

Heteroscedastic censored and truncated regression with crch

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: R Journal, vol: 8, issue: 1, pages: 173-181

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2016

2015
 

Predicting wind power with reforecasts

Dabernig, Markus ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob W.
in: Weather and Forecasting, vol: 30, issue: 6, pages: 1655-1662

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2015     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0095.1

2014
 

Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Messner, Jakob W. ; Zeileis, Achim ; Broecker, Jochen ; Mayr, Georg J.
in: Wind Energy, vol: 17, issue: 11, pages: 1753-1766

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2014     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1666

 

Heteroscedastic extended logistic regression for postprocessing of ensemble guidance

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim ; Wilks, Daniel S.
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 142, issue: 1, pages: 448-456

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2014     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00271.1

 

Extending extended logistic regression

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Wilks, Daniel S. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 142, issue: 8, pages: 3003-3014

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2014     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00355.1

2013
 

Brief communication Spatial and temporal variation of wind power at hub height over Europe

Gisinger, S. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, J. W. ; Stauffer, Reto
in: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, vol: 20, issue: 3, pages: 305-310

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2013     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-305-2013

2012
 

Wind speeds at heights crucial for wind energy: Measurements and verification of forecasts

Drechsel, Susanne ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob ; Stauffer, Reto
in: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol: 51, issue: 9, pages: 1602-1617

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2012     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0247.1

  PDF

Why Does It Always Rain on Me? A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Precipitation in Austria

Umlauf, Nikolaus ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Austrian Journal of Statistics, vol: 41, issue: 1, pages: 81–92

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2012

2011
 

Probabilistic forecasts using analogs in the idealized Lorenz96 setting

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J.
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 139, issue: 6, pages: 1960-1971

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2011     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3542.1


https://www.cee.elektro.dtu.dk/research/postdocs/high-dimensional-forecasting-of-renewable-energy-generation?fr=11&id=116970&mr=10&qt=DtuPublicationQuery
6 JULY 2020