Title:
Positioning of Danish offshore wind farms until 2030 using Levelized cost of energy (LCOE)
Supervisors: Asger Abrahamsen and Niels-Erik Clausen, DTU Wind Energy
Examiner: Preben Jørgensen, DSB
Abstract:
The cost of offshore wind energy projects has declined significantly during the past decade. A key element for this reduction in project costs has been the identification of the most attractive areas that maximize the business case value of an offshore wind farm project, from the point of view of both government and project developer.
This Master Thesis presents a methodology that allows a comparison between potential offshore wind farm project locations using Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE) - an indicator representing the cost of one unit of produced energy along the lifetime of the project. Predictions of future cost and technology development up until 2030 are introduced in order to identify factors that have potential to reduce LCoE in the future.
The most profitable areas were found around the coast of Jutland in the North Sea and Kattegat (northwest of Jutland). However, also sites east of Sealand appeared to be attractive. An overall drop in LCoE across the entire Danish Sea from 115-200 Euro/MWh in 2008 to 36-60 Euro/MWh in 2030 was determined. This drop was caused by capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) reductions, but as well by technology improvements such as increased turbine and farm capacity as well as extended lifetime. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis revealed that the discount rate, the wind turbine costs and the OPEX have significant impact on the LCoE.
A ranking according to the LCoE of wind farms positioned in pre-selected areas was performed for 2021 and compared to an external report prepared by COWI A/S, showing LCoE values in the same order of magnitude.