Postdoc at CEE Jakob Messner-Photo: Colourbox

High dimensional forecasting of renewable energy generation

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind and solar power are essential for an optimal integration of these energy sources in power systems and electricity markets. Commonly, these forecasts are based on current output at the forecast location and/or output from physical models. With the substantial deployment of generation capacities, high amounts of data have become available at numerous generation sites and at a high temporal resolution.

This project aims in improving power generation forecasts by employing the space-time dependencies in these data. Therefore high-dimensional forecasting models are developed that filter out the most relevant information in the data, adapt to changes in the underlying processes and are still computationally feasible in an operational setting.


Publikationer rss feed

2020
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Evaluation of wind power forecasts—An up-to-date view

Messner, Jakob W. ; Pinson, Pierre ; Browell, Jethro ; Bjerregård, Mathias B. ; Schicker, Irene
in: Wind Energy, vol: 23, issue: 6, pages: 1461-1481

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2020     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2497

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Online distributed learning in wind power forecasting

Sommer, Benedikt ; Pinson, Pierre ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Obst, David
in: International Journal of Forecasting, vol: 37, issue: 1, pages: 205-223

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2020     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.04.004

 

Statistical post‐processing of turbulence‐resolving weather forecasts for offshore wind power forecasting

Gilbert, Ciaran ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Pinson, Pierre ; Trombe, Pierre‐Julien ; Verzijlbergh, Remco ; Dorp, Pim ; Jonker, Harmen
in: Wind Energy, vol: 23, issue: 4, pages: 884-897

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2020     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2456

2019
 

Online adaptive lasso estimation in vector autoregressive models for high dimensional wind power forecasting

Messner, Jakob W. ; Pinson, Pierre
in: International Journal of Forecasting, vol: 35, issue: 4, pages: 1485-1498

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2019     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.02.001

2018
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Estimation methods for non-homogeneous regression models: Minimum continuous ranked probability score vs. maximum likelihood

Gebetsberger, Manuel ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 146, issue: 12, pages: 4323-4338

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2018     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0364.1

2017
 

Ensemble postprocessing of daily precipitation sums over complex terrain using censored high-resolution standardized anomalies

Stauffer, Reto ; Umlauf, Nikolaus ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 145, issue: 3, pages: 955-969

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0260.1

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Fine-Tuning Nonhomogeneous Regression for Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts: Unanimous Predictions, Heavy Tails, and Link Functions

Gebetsberger, Manuel ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 145, issue: 11, pages: 4693-4708

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0388.1

 

Nonhomogeneous boosting for predictor selection in ensemble postprocessing

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 145, issue: 1, pages: 137-147

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0088.1

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Simultaneous ensemble postprocessing for multiple lead times with standardized anomalies

Dabernig, Markus ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 145, issue: 7, pages: 2523-2531

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0413.1

 

Spatial ensemble post-processing with standardized anomalies

Dabernig, Markus ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol: 143, issue: 703, pages: 909-916

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2975

 

Spatio-temporal precipitation climatology over complex terrain using a censored additive regression model

Stauffer, Reto ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob W. ; Umlauf, Nikolaus ; Zeileis, Achim
in: International Journal of Climatology, vol: 37, issue: 7, pages: 3264-3275

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2017     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4913

2016
 

Heteroscedastic censored and truncated regression with crch

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: R Journal, vol: 8, issue: 1, pages: 173-181

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2016     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32614/rj-2016-012

2015
 

Predicting wind power with reforecasts

Dabernig, Markus ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob W.
in: Weather and Forecasting, vol: 30, issue: 6, pages: 1655-1662

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2015     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0095.1

2014
 

Extending extended logistic regression

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Wilks, Daniel S. ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 142, issue: 8, pages: 3003-3014

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2014     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00355.1

 

Heteroscedastic extended logistic regression for postprocessing of ensemble guidance

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Zeileis, Achim ; Wilks, Daniel S.
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 142, issue: 1, pages: 448-456

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2014     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00271.1

 

Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Messner, Jakob W. ; Zeileis, Achim ; Broecker, Jochen ; Mayr, Georg J.
in: Wind Energy, vol: 17, issue: 11, pages: 1753-1766

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2014     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1666

2013
 

Brief communication Spatial and temporal variation of wind power at hub height over Europe

Gisinger, S. ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, J. W. ; Stauffer, Reto
in: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, vol: 20, issue: 3, pages: 305-310

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2013     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-305-2013

2012
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Why Does It Always Rain on Me? A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Precipitation in Austria

Umlauf, Nikolaus ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob ; Zeileis, Achim
in: Austrian Journal of Statistics, vol: 41, issue: 1, pages: 81–92

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2012

 

Wind speeds at heights crucial for wind energy: Measurements and verification of forecasts

Drechsel, Susanne ; Mayr, Georg J. ; Messner, Jakob ; Stauffer, Reto
in: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol: 51, issue: 9, pages: 1602-1617

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2012     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0247.1

2011
 

Probabilistic forecasts using analogs in the idealized Lorenz96 setting

Messner, Jakob W. ; Mayr, Georg J.
in: Monthly Weather Review, vol: 139, issue: 6, pages: 1960-1971

Type: Journal article (Peer reviewed)

Status: Published     |    Year: 2011     |    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3542.1